Class is in Session! Study Predicts Surprising Trends for the Future of Georgia Education
Earlier this year, Andrew Hannah, Adjunct Professor and Executive/Entrepreneur-in-Residence at Pitt Business co-authored a study on enrollment figures for colleges. The outcome determined that Georgia’s colleges, especially the minor ones, would see a considerable decline in enrollment figures by 2025.
Hannah is an expert in statistical analytics and is co-founder and chairman of Othot, a platform that studies enrollment trends of higher institutions of learning.
He predicts that the smaller local colleges will see a decrease in enrollment over the next ten years. Smaller local colleges will have the greatest wane, but larger national universities will continue to hold their own.
Hannah also foresees that colleges in Georgia’s neighboring states – Alabama, Florida, North and South Carolina and Tennessee will see greater numbers of first-generation students in years to come.
The decline in college enrollment figures both local to Georgia and nationally, can be somewhat attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic, but the main reason for declining numbers is in large part due to the 2008 recession, which saw a major decline in birth rates, as well as many prospective parents postponing starting families.
The University System of Georgia (USG) comprises 26 institutions of higher learning, amongst which are four research universities, four comprehensive universities, nine state universities and nine state colleges. Research universities differ from comprehensive universities in that the latter includes baccalaureate degrees as well as the academic programs (undergraduate, master's and doctorate degrees) offered by the former.
The University of Georgia is the state’s flagship university and is expected to grow its enrollment numbers while smaller colleges are experiencing relative declines. Prospective students are leaving school with lower standards of academic qualifications, which affects universities’ graduation rates and thus funding in the long term.
It is likely that a number of individual USG institutions will close or consolidate with one another. Universities will have to adapt to students’ new outlooks on higher learning. There is a growing trend of students taking courses at different institutions but building towards a single degree or certificate. Employers will consider a wider skill set as more attractive which may equate to a contemporary degree. Today’s students, i.e., those born post-1996 (Generation Z) have never not used digital technology, and their entire outlook on communication and learning is vastly different from previous generations.
State support for universities is declining, increasing the need for universities to find their funding through other means. It will mean a concerted change of attitude to implement new ideas at some traditionally conservative institutions.
The conventional student bodies of old usually comprised scholars who had achieved passable grades and came from relatively affluent families who could afford sometimes exorbitant fees.
Things are very different in these modern times. Studies have shown that many future college attendees will consist of minority students who are the first in their families to graduate. A strategic planning forecast by Georgia College proposed that the number of Hispanic students in the U.S. will increase by 27% in the next five years. High school graduates now comprise almost 40% minority groups, which is set to increase to 50% by 2023.
Nathan D. Grawe is a professor at Carleton College, a private college in Northfield Minnesota. He developed the Higher Education Demand Index (HEDI) which looks at demographics for different socio-economic bands. He has found that minority population groups are increasing but at the same time are less likely to attend college.
Like Andrew Hannah, he believes that the demand for education is declining overall, and his HEDI forecast predicts that there will be a 10% reduction in student enrollment by 2029.
The existing elite colleges may retain their student base but at the expense of those with less stringent learning standards, resulting in an overall decline in enrollment.
